Last year, total holiday retail sales in the US grew 4% YoY, according to the National Retail Federation. However, this year, the outlook is more uncertain.

Looming tariffs, inflation fatigue, and a second consecutive late Thanksgiving look likely to create a challenging season for consumers and marketers.

Here's what to know when planning for the upcoming holiday season.

The holiday calendar is moving up

Thanks to Amazon’s October Prime event and a wave of copycat sales, holiday shopping has crept earlier each year. In 2025, it’ll likely start even sooner, especially if tariffs push price-conscious consumers to stockpile goods ahead of time.

• Affected categories include toys, where some 80% of inventory is imported from China, and small indulgences like chocolate and coffee, according to our analyst Sky Canaves.

However, November and December still account for roughly 75% of Q4 online holiday sales, highlighting the importance of sustaining momentum through the end of the year.

Marketing takeaway: Frontload your campaigns, but ensure promotions extend across the full holiday arc—from Turkey 12 (the week before Thanksgiving and the Cyber Five) to Christmas Eve.

Value matters, but so does emotion

While we do expect total US holiday sales to rise a modest 1.2% YoY, per our forecast, consumer confidence is fragile and budgets will remain tight.

• Promotions need to highlight value—especially during key windows like Cyber Five, when deal-hunters are most active.

Still though, for many, the holidays remain a time for small splurges and feel-good purchases.

“Some consumers might be able to absorb price increases more easily later in the year and might be looking to splurge a little and enjoy the holidays,” said Canaves.

Marketing takeaway: Don’t choose between value and aspiration—deliver both. Lead with utility and reward with emotion.

Mobile will dominate

Mcommerce has been increasing its share of digital holiday sales. In 2025, mcommerce will account for 56.5% of total US holiday retail ecommerce sales and 11.5% of total holiday season sales, per EMARKETER’s forecast.

• Shoppers use mobile for everything from browsing to buying to price-comparing while in-store.
• If delivery costs become too much, many consumers may shift to fulfillment options like buy online, pick up in store (BOPIS)—making seamless mobile experiences even more critical.

Marketing takeaway: Optimize apps and mobile sites for ease, speed, and utility. Consider in-app deal alerts, real-time inventory checkers, and digital gift guides.